No problem! That’s part of the appeal of this stock as almost all of the stock research websites have misinformation about the company which makes most investors confused. If you read the VIC write up at the end of the write up the offer added a bunch of links to find information about the company including CZBS parent companies filings and the companies investors relations page.
So in researching this stock I used some of those links , otc market website, and have followed the stock on Fintwit in which investors like Whit Hughley, Tim Erikson, and Alex Bossert have all provided there own information about the stock (Whit Hughley was one of 3 investors at the annual meeting). If you’re interested in following the stock I’d highly recommend reading what these guys say about the company.
Yeah that makes sense. I never invested into an OTC company before. I do miss having access to all their data. Also stuff like earnings calls etc. I think it can be a double edged sword in some cases.
But the VIC write-up definitely makes a strong case. Buybacks should be able to unlock a lot of value. I do wonder if it's realistic to expect a re-rating of it's multiple anytime soon. Seems like it's been trading at low PEs forever.
Although it looks like the aggressive rate cuts this year might be a short-term headwind, which could temper short-term returns. Any thoughts?
I try not to rely on a re-rating of a stock to get my full return. If they didn’t do share buybacks and talk about possibly making an acquisition, I probably wouldn’t have considered investing. As long as their returning capital of shareholders, I am quite happy.
Rate cuts are are definitely a short term headwind which will affect their earnings in the short term, but I think for the long-term it’s actually good for them. They should hopefully be able to make more loans as interest rates get lower.
Getting into these over-the-counter stocks or penny stocks is always a struggle. For me just to get my starter position in the stock it took me almost 2 weeks and I only manage a tiny amount of money. I can’t imagine running a fund and trying to squeeze half a million into the stock.
Yeah, I'm the same. If a thesis relies too much on a re-rating I'm not buying. I was moreso wondering how likely a re-rating would be in CZBS's case, realistically.
That makes sense on the long-term view. They have a lot of cash waiting to be loaned out haha.
Yeah tbh I'm more stressed out being able to sell when I want haha.
You like any of the Twitter pitches from Clark Square Capital?
Some of the oil & gas stocks like $NOV & $PSI seem like they could have some value. But I don't really like oil and it's volatility in earnings. Nor do I have a clear indication that the industry will enter an upswing.
$XFAB is also ridiculously cheap. But they seem very dependant on the automotive / EV industry which I don't really like (cyclical, not doing so hot right now, no clue on the short-/ mid-term outlook). Besides that they return zero cash to shareholders..
Then you have $PAX which is kinda cool, but is already priced for many years of high growth. TAM for their two products is supposed to be $2B though, so even if they capture like 10-20% it should be a 5-10 bagger. But I honestly don't know how fast they can scale / grow, which is also very dependent on insurance regulations etc. They don't seem to have very strong competition right now, but I also wonder how much of a moat they have. I don't think they have any patent protection. But they do have the regulatory approvals of course.
Finally there's $VBNK of course, which is my biggest position already haha.
So I don’t remember all the companies from the pitches but quickly looking through it SEG,AMPS, and PWS.MI each look interesting but I haven’t done much research into those names. I know that a lot of people on twitter talk about SEG and you can find some pretty great research for it over there.
I personally don’t really like oil and gas companies as they’re nowhere near my circle of competence and I don’t understand the cycle trends.
I quickly looked at XFAB and I don’t really like it as they have massive CapEx cost ($411 million TTM). If they also don’t return cash to shareholders as u said then I’m even less inclined to truly look into it.
PAX seems the most interesting out of the companies you mentioned but I’d have to look way more into the product before I even start looking at the valuation.
VBNK is one of my largest holdings (HROW is currently my largest holding as it’s up over 300% since I bought it) and I’m quite happy with how it’s performed. I’m now waiting to see what the numbers are going to looks like after they start onboarding more US costumers .
Yeah same, very excicted about the future of VBNK.
Ah HROW. I discovered it just 2 days before it went to $40 and didn't have the time to properly research it. I think there still could be value but I feel like the risk-reward is pretty diferent now, there's less margin of safety. I was following it in case it went down again but now it's at $50.. 😂
What do you think?
I did at least get into ETON at that time, which is up 85%.
Well the margin of safety on HROW is pretty much gone now lmao. When I bought into it was priced at basically nothing and was being shorted into oblivion now it’s priced as if they can reach some of their goals.
The question with HROW is if they can actually reach managements goals. Management has stated multiple times a goal of $1B in revenue by 2027 and if they actually reach that goal then HROW is still clearly undervalued.
The problem is that’s a very hard goal to reach considering they only did $130M in 2023. But VEYVE has been a massive hit so far and they just relaunched TRIESENCE which in all of my valuations I left out as o felt it was cheap enough whether they were able to properly make it or not. Over the coming months we’ll see how many people continue buying IHEEZO and VEVYE
I’m currently not buying at these prices bc despite there being more upside if they hit their goals the margin of safety is just not what I would like it to be.
If you want to see someone who thinks there a ton more upside I’d recommend you follow Michigan Value Investor on X who’s been screaming for a while now that HROW is a strong buy.
Side note- I also own their senior notes (HROWL) that yield 8.6% that I bought below par
Yeah agreed. $1B seems achievable, but I'd want some more confidence in them going over that at current price. Also the shorts are very.. interesting, to say the least. Tbh I was hoping the price action was a temporary small short squeeze, but it doesn't really seem like it.
Nice one on the senior notes, seems like HROW is treating you well haha!
CZBS looks to be trading at a P/B of 2 right now?
Can I ask where you’re seeing that number? A lot of websites get CZBS data wrong though it’s possible I’m wrong
No you're right, my bad. I used StockAnalysis, but their latest data is FY 2022..
Where do you get their latest number from? I can see a press release from Q1 2024, but it doesn't contain the full financial statements.
No problem! That’s part of the appeal of this stock as almost all of the stock research websites have misinformation about the company which makes most investors confused. If you read the VIC write up at the end of the write up the offer added a bunch of links to find information about the company including CZBS parent companies filings and the companies investors relations page.
So in researching this stock I used some of those links , otc market website, and have followed the stock on Fintwit in which investors like Whit Hughley, Tim Erikson, and Alex Bossert have all provided there own information about the stock (Whit Hughley was one of 3 investors at the annual meeting). If you’re interested in following the stock I’d highly recommend reading what these guys say about the company.
Thought I'd start a small position but there is literally no volume on IBKR.. I guess that's penny stocks for me haha..
Yeah that makes sense. I never invested into an OTC company before. I do miss having access to all their data. Also stuff like earnings calls etc. I think it can be a double edged sword in some cases.
But the VIC write-up definitely makes a strong case. Buybacks should be able to unlock a lot of value. I do wonder if it's realistic to expect a re-rating of it's multiple anytime soon. Seems like it's been trading at low PEs forever.
Although it looks like the aggressive rate cuts this year might be a short-term headwind, which could temper short-term returns. Any thoughts?
Thanks for sharing!
I try not to rely on a re-rating of a stock to get my full return. If they didn’t do share buybacks and talk about possibly making an acquisition, I probably wouldn’t have considered investing. As long as their returning capital of shareholders, I am quite happy.
Rate cuts are are definitely a short term headwind which will affect their earnings in the short term, but I think for the long-term it’s actually good for them. They should hopefully be able to make more loans as interest rates get lower.
Getting into these over-the-counter stocks or penny stocks is always a struggle. For me just to get my starter position in the stock it took me almost 2 weeks and I only manage a tiny amount of money. I can’t imagine running a fund and trying to squeeze half a million into the stock.
Yeah, I'm the same. If a thesis relies too much on a re-rating I'm not buying. I was moreso wondering how likely a re-rating would be in CZBS's case, realistically.
That makes sense on the long-term view. They have a lot of cash waiting to be loaned out haha.
Yeah tbh I'm more stressed out being able to sell when I want haha.
Hi, will you elaborate on your numbers for you price/bv calculation? Using the 2023 annual report at https://ctbconnect.com/investor-corporate-governance-information/ I can't get to 1.15 P/B no matter how I do it.
You like any of the Twitter pitches from Clark Square Capital?
Some of the oil & gas stocks like $NOV & $PSI seem like they could have some value. But I don't really like oil and it's volatility in earnings. Nor do I have a clear indication that the industry will enter an upswing.
$XFAB is also ridiculously cheap. But they seem very dependant on the automotive / EV industry which I don't really like (cyclical, not doing so hot right now, no clue on the short-/ mid-term outlook). Besides that they return zero cash to shareholders..
Then you have $PAX which is kinda cool, but is already priced for many years of high growth. TAM for their two products is supposed to be $2B though, so even if they capture like 10-20% it should be a 5-10 bagger. But I honestly don't know how fast they can scale / grow, which is also very dependent on insurance regulations etc. They don't seem to have very strong competition right now, but I also wonder how much of a moat they have. I don't think they have any patent protection. But they do have the regulatory approvals of course.
Finally there's $VBNK of course, which is my biggest position already haha.
So I don’t remember all the companies from the pitches but quickly looking through it SEG,AMPS, and PWS.MI each look interesting but I haven’t done much research into those names. I know that a lot of people on twitter talk about SEG and you can find some pretty great research for it over there.
I personally don’t really like oil and gas companies as they’re nowhere near my circle of competence and I don’t understand the cycle trends.
I quickly looked at XFAB and I don’t really like it as they have massive CapEx cost ($411 million TTM). If they also don’t return cash to shareholders as u said then I’m even less inclined to truly look into it.
PAX seems the most interesting out of the companies you mentioned but I’d have to look way more into the product before I even start looking at the valuation.
VBNK is one of my largest holdings (HROW is currently my largest holding as it’s up over 300% since I bought it) and I’m quite happy with how it’s performed. I’m now waiting to see what the numbers are going to looks like after they start onboarding more US costumers .
Yeah same, very excicted about the future of VBNK.
Ah HROW. I discovered it just 2 days before it went to $40 and didn't have the time to properly research it. I think there still could be value but I feel like the risk-reward is pretty diferent now, there's less margin of safety. I was following it in case it went down again but now it's at $50.. 😂
What do you think?
I did at least get into ETON at that time, which is up 85%.
Well the margin of safety on HROW is pretty much gone now lmao. When I bought into it was priced at basically nothing and was being shorted into oblivion now it’s priced as if they can reach some of their goals.
The question with HROW is if they can actually reach managements goals. Management has stated multiple times a goal of $1B in revenue by 2027 and if they actually reach that goal then HROW is still clearly undervalued.
The problem is that’s a very hard goal to reach considering they only did $130M in 2023. But VEYVE has been a massive hit so far and they just relaunched TRIESENCE which in all of my valuations I left out as o felt it was cheap enough whether they were able to properly make it or not. Over the coming months we’ll see how many people continue buying IHEEZO and VEVYE
I’m currently not buying at these prices bc despite there being more upside if they hit their goals the margin of safety is just not what I would like it to be.
If you want to see someone who thinks there a ton more upside I’d recommend you follow Michigan Value Investor on X who’s been screaming for a while now that HROW is a strong buy.
Side note- I also own their senior notes (HROWL) that yield 8.6% that I bought below par
Yeah agreed. $1B seems achievable, but I'd want some more confidence in them going over that at current price. Also the shorts are very.. interesting, to say the least. Tbh I was hoping the price action was a temporary small short squeeze, but it doesn't really seem like it.
Nice one on the senior notes, seems like HROW is treating you well haha!